Fixture Difficulty Rating

I’ve been trying to come up with a formula that will help calculate Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR)

The obvious place to start is points per game over the last few games (PPG)

Examples below

Manchester City vs Brighton

Manchester City = 3
Brighton = 0.8

A difference of 2.2 For Manchester City and -2.2 for Brighton

Which suggests this is an easy game for Manchester City and a difficult one for Brighton

But if we compare Sheffield United and Newcastle

We get a difference of -0.2 For Sheffield United and 0.2 for Newcastle which suggests any result could happen.

If we want to rank the fixtures into categories (Easy,Open,Unlikely) we need to decide what range to use to grade each fixture.

FDR
Manchester City 2.2 Easy
Brighton -2.2 Unlikely

Sheffield United -0.2 Open
Newcastle 0.2 Open

#dataanalytics #data #football #predictiveanalytics

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